The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

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dc.contributor.authorMoersdorf J
dc.contributor.authorRivers M
dc.contributor.authorDenkenberger, David
dc.contributor.authorBreuer L
dc.contributor.authorJehn FU
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-18T03:42:32Z
dc.date.available2024-11-18T03:42:32Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractModern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large-scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber-attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop-specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%–48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system.
dc.identifier.citationMoersdorf J, Rivers M, Denkenberger D, Breuer L, Jehn FU (2024). The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario. Global Challenges. 8(1). 2300206-.
dc.identifier.doihttp://doi.org/10.1002/gch2.202300206
dc.identifier.issn2056-6646
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10092/107307
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherWiley
dc.rightsAll rights reserved unless otherwise stated
dc.rights.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651
dc.subjectelectrical grid
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectglobal catastrophic infrastructure loss
dc.subjectglobal catastrophic risks
dc.subjectsolar storm
dc.subject.anzsrc30 - Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences::3006 - Food sciences::300606 - Food sustainability
dc.subject.anzsrc30 - Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences::3002 - Agriculture, land and farm management::300205 - Agricultural production systems simulation
dc.subject.anzsrc40 - Engineering::4005 - Civil engineering::400508 - Infrastructure engineering and asset management
dc.subject.anzsrc40 - Engineering::4008 - Electrical engineering::400805 - Electrical energy transmission, networks and systems
dc.subject.anzsrc40 - Engineering::4010 - Engineering practice and education::401005 - Risk engineering
dc.subject.anzsrc37 - Earth sciences::3709 - Physical geography and environmental geoscience::370903 - Natural hazards
dc.subject.anzsrc30 - Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences::3002 - Agriculture, land and farm management::300207 - Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
dc.subject.anzsrc30 - Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences::3002 - Agriculture, land and farm management::300208 - Farm management, rural management and agribusiness
dc.titleThe Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario
dc.typeJournal Article
uc.collegeFaculty of Engineering
uc.departmentMechanical Engineering
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