The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Type of content
Journal Article
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
Wiley
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
eng
Date
2024
Authors
Moersdorf J
Rivers M
Denkenberger, David
Breuer L
Jehn FU
Abstract

Modern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large-scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber-attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop-specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%–48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system.

Description
Citation
Moersdorf J, Rivers M, Denkenberger D, Breuer L, Jehn FU (2024). The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario. Global Challenges. 8(1). 2300206-.
Keywords
electrical grid, food security, global catastrophic infrastructure loss, global catastrophic risks, solar storm
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
30 - Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences::3006 - Food sciences::300606 - Food sustainability
30 - Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences::3002 - Agriculture, land and farm management::300205 - Agricultural production systems simulation
40 - Engineering::4005 - Civil engineering::400508 - Infrastructure engineering and asset management
40 - Engineering::4008 - Electrical engineering::400805 - Electrical energy transmission, networks and systems
40 - Engineering::4010 - Engineering practice and education::401005 - Risk engineering
37 - Earth sciences::3709 - Physical geography and environmental geoscience::370903 - Natural hazards
30 - Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences::3002 - Agriculture, land and farm management::300207 - Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
30 - Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences::3002 - Agriculture, land and farm management::300208 - Farm management, rural management and agribusiness
Rights
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