Introducing Stories Into Downward Counterfactual Analysis: Examples From a Potential Mediterranean Disaster

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dc.contributor.authorWalshe R
dc.contributor.authorBaker H
dc.contributor.authorvan Soest H
dc.contributor.authorDryhurst S
dc.contributor.authorTaylor ARE
dc.contributor.authorPenney, Camilla
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-01T00:15:54Z
dc.date.available2022-06-01T00:15:54Z
dc.date.issued2022en
dc.date.updated2022-05-04T04:40:52Z
dc.description.abstractHow to recognise potential disasters is a question at the centre of risk analysis. Over-reliance on an incomplete, often epistemologically-biased, historical record, and a focus on quantified and quantifiable risks, have contributed to unanticipated disasters dominating both casualties and financial losses in the first part of the 21st century. Here we present the findings of an online workshop implementing a new scenario-planning method, called downward counterfactual analysis, which is designed to expand the range of risks considered. Interdisciplinary groups of disaster researchers constructed downward counterfactuals for a present-day version of the 365CE Cretan earthquake and tsunami, imagining how these events might have been worse. The resulting counterfactuals have trans-national, long-term impacts, particularly in terms of economic losses, and connect risks previously identified in separate sectors. Most counterfactuals involved socio-political factors, rather than intrinsic components of the hazard, consistent with the idea that there are “no natural disasters”. The prevalence of cascading counterfactuals in our workshop suggests that further work is required to give the appropriate weight to pre-existing economic and social conditions in scenario-planning methods, such as downward counterfactual analysis, which focus on the occurrence of a hazard as the temporal starting point for a disaster. Both proposed counterfactuals and their justifications reflect a bias towards contemporary issues and recent historical disasters. We suggest that interdisciplinary groups can expand the range of imagined risks. However, the setup used here would be improved by including local stakeholders. Qualitative forms of downward counterfactual analysis have potential applications for community engagement and education, as well as for risk analysis.</jats:p>en
dc.identifier.citationPenney C, Walshe R, Baker H, van Soest H, Dryhurst S, Taylor ARE Introducing Stories Into Downward Counterfactual Analysis: Examples From a Potential Mediterranean Disaster. Frontiers in Earth Science. 10.en
dc.identifier.doihttp://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.742016
dc.identifier.issn2296-6463
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10092/103745
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherFrontiers Media SAen
dc.rightsCopyright © 2022 Penney, Walshe, Baker, van Soest, Dryhurst and Taylor. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.en
dc.rights.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651en
dc.subjectrisk analysisen
dc.subjectdownward counterfactualen
dc.subjectdisastersen
dc.subjectEastern Mediterraneanen
dc.subjectearthquakeen
dc.subjecttsunamien
dc.subjectBlack Swanen
dc.subjectuncertaintyen
dc.subject.anzsrcFields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3709 - Physical geography and environmental geoscience::370903 - Natural hazardsen
dc.subject.anzsrcFields of Research::40 - Engineering::4010 - Engineering practice and education::401005 - Risk engineeringen
dc.subject.anzsrcFields of Research::44 - Human society::4404 - Development studies::440402 - Humanitarian disasters, conflict and peacebuildingen
dc.subject.anzsrcFields of Research::40 - Engineering::4011 - Environmental engineering::401104 - Health and ecological risk assessmenten
dc.titleIntroducing Stories Into Downward Counterfactual Analysis: Examples From a Potential Mediterranean Disasteren
dc.typeJournal Articleen
uc.collegeFaculty of Science
uc.departmentSchool of Earth and Environment
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