Forecasting Electricity Consumption: A Comparison of Models for New Zealand and the Maldives

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dc.contributor.authorMohamed, Z.
dc.contributor.authorBodger, P.S.
dc.contributor.authorHume, D.J.
dc.date.accessioned2008-09-22T21:05:11Z
dc.date.available2008-09-22T21:05:11Z
dc.date.issued2004en
dc.description.abstractThis paper compares the forecasting ability of six electricity forecasting models for New Zealand and the Maldives. They are three growth curve models (Logistic, Harvey Logistic and Harvey models), a multiple linear regression model proposed using economic and demographic factors referred to as the Combined model, a growth curve model that uses economic and demographic factors referred to as the Variable Asymptote Logistic (VAL) model and a Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. The models are compared using goodness of fit to the historical consumption data and their forecasting accuracy in the short, medium and long term. The analyses of the six presented forecasting models showed that the best overall model is the Harvey model that generally gave more accurate or comparable forecasts than the more complex ARIMA and Combined models. This shows that the simple Harvey model could play a significant role in forecasting electricity.en
dc.identifier.citationMohamed, Z., Bodger, P.S., Hume, D.J. (2004) Forecasting Electricity Consumption: A Comparison of Models for New Zealand and the Maldives. Kathmandu, Nepal: International Conference on Power Systems, 3-5 Nov 2004. 6 pp.en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10092/1611
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherUniversity of Canterbury. Electrical and Computer Engineering.en
dc.rights.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651en
dc.subjectARIMA modelsen
dc.subjectforecastingen
dc.subjectpower demanden
dc.subjecterror analysisen
dc.subjecttime series analysisen
dc.subject.marsdenFields of Research::290000 Engineering and Technology::290900 Electrical and Electronic Engineering::290901 Electrical engineeringen
dc.titleForecasting Electricity Consumption: A Comparison of Models for New Zealand and the Maldivesen
dc.typeConference Contributions - Published
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