Working Papers in Economics
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Item Open Access Further Tests of Ahn, Khandelwal, and Wei’s (2011) Model of Intermediated Trade(University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, 2019) Duan J; Qian X; Das K; Meriluoto L; Reed WRThis study subjects Ahn, Khandelwal, and Wei’s (2011) model of intermediary trade to a series of additional tests. Using data mostly sourced independently from AKW, we demonstrate that we are able to reproduce the evidence supporting their three main predictions for Chinese exports. However, further tests reveal that these results are not robust. When we repeat the analysis underlying their first prediction with more recently available data, we estimate coefficients that are wrong-signed and significant. When we re-analyze the evidence supporting their second and third predictions, we find that the full sample results mask significant heterogeneity across Chinese regions. In many cases, key coefficients are insignificant. In a few cases, they are wrong-signed and significant. Finally, we find that there are multiple versions of a key variables measuring the number of required import documents by country, and that results are not robust across versions.Item Open Access An investigation of the resource curse in Indonesia(Elsevier BV, 2019) Hilmawan R; Clark JWe investigate the effect of resource dependence on district level income in a rare within-country study for Indonesia, one of the largest resource producing countries in Asia. We follow 390 districts between 2006 and 2015, consider four alternative measures of resouce dependence, and instrument for the potential endogeneity of each using historical measures of oil, gas and coal reserve locations, and changes in the physical production of each resource. Using annual fixed effects and first differenced regressions with and without various instruments, we find no evidence of a “resource curse”. Instead, we find robust evidence across all models that dependence as measured by mining’s share of output is positively associated with district real per capita income. We find a similar positive relationship between dependence as measured by the share of district government revenues from oil and gas or mining overall, and income in our most credible specifications with instruments. For example, a standard deviation increase in change in district government dependence on oil/gas revenues increases real per capita income by 16 percent over a nine year period.Item Open Access Do Better Informed Investors Always Do Better? A Buyback Puzzle(Wiley, 2018) Boyle G; Ward G© 2018 Western Economic Association International We explore the value of private investment information using data from a singular source: auctions of yearling racehorses. Horse breeders possess superior information about their own horses and have strong financial incentives to buy the best of these back at auction. However, those they repurchase subsequently perform significantly worse on average, earning 30% less at the racetrack than horses purchased by outsiders. Moreover, this underperformance is concentrated in male horses, despite these being purchased exclusively for racing purposes. These puzzling findings cannot be explained by differences in horse risk or breeder abilities, or by nonfinancial objectives, or by behavioral or selection biases. (JEL G02, G11, G14, L83, D44).Item Open Access Public implementation of Blockchain Technology(2018) Franklet D; Meriluoto L; Ross G; Scott C; Williams PThis paper discusses the avenues through which a public implementation of blockchain could deliver efficiency gains in the running of a government. We discuss some of the current inefficiencies in recordkeeping and the efficiency improvements that could come about if recordkeeping, including keeping track of tax liability, would be “put on the blockchain”. We discuss some of the current issues with transaction costs and property rights that governments face and how these could be addressed with blockchain. We also discuss issues with asymmetric information in general and moral hazard in particular that are ripe in the delivery of public services and how blockchain could be used to reduce them to achieve efficiency gains and better outcomes for public policy.Item Open Access Searching for profit-shifting in China(2018) Reed WR; Qian X; Tian B; Chen ZThis paper investigates profit-shifting behavior among multinational corporations (MNCs) in China. The authors exploit the flat-rate structure of China’s corporate income tax, along with its system of targeted, preferential rates, to estimate the relationship between profits and tax rates. Their sample consists of approximately 60,000 observations of foreign-owned MNCs from the years 2005–2009. Using the traditional approach of regressing before-tax profits on tax rates, the authors find evidence consistent with profit-shifting. However, this approach is suspect because the nature of China’s tax preferences makes it especially vulnerable to omitted variable bias. Accordingly, the authors employ finite mixture modelling to search for the existence of a group of profit-shifting MNCs. While their analysis identifies two types of firms, subsequent investigation failed to produce any evidence linking these to profit-shifting behavior. Robustness checks exploiting the panel nature of the dataset, along with further investigation of investment-tax elasticities, confirm the authors´ null finding of profit-shifting. One reason for the lack of profit-shifting among Chinese MNCs may be that corporate tax rates were relatively low during this period.Item Open Access Robots, Job Characteristics and Job Insecurity(2018) Coupe TIn this paper, I use data from a recent Pew survey to analyse the reasons behind people's fear of losing their job to robots. I find that more people fear losing their job to other people than fear losing it to robots, that people who fear robots typically also fear losing their job for other reasons and that many job and individual characteristics that correlate with the fear of losing one's job to robots also correlate with the fear of losing one's job for other reasons. Finally, I find only limited evidence that job characteristics identified by experts as being robot proof are related to lower job insecurity.Item Open Access An Investigation of the Resource Curse in Indonesia(RePEc, 2018) Clark JE; Hilmawan RWe investigate the effect of resource dependence on district level income in a rare within-country study for Indonesia, one of the largest resource producing countries in Asia. We follow 390 districts between 2006 and 2015, consider four alternative measures of resource dependence, and instrument for the potential endogeneity of each using historical measures of oil, gas and coal reserve locations, and changes in the physical production of each resource. Using annual fixed effects and first differenced regressions with and without various instruments, we find no evidence of a “resource curse”. Instead, we find robust evidence across all models that dependence as measured by mining’s share of output is positively associated with district real per capita income. We find a similar positive relationship between dependence as measured by the share of district government revenues from oil and gas or mining overall, and income in our most credible specifications with instruments. For example, a standard deviation increase in change in district government dependence on oil/gas revenues increases real per capita income by 16 percent over a nine year period.Item Open Access A Replication of “Are Competitive Banking Systems More Stable?” (Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2009)(2017) Das KK; Bandarnayake S; Reed WRThis study replicates Schaeck, Čihák, and Wolfe (2009), henceforth SCW, and performs a variety of robustness checks. Using a cross-country, time series sample of 45 countries from 1980-2005, SCW investigate the relationship between competition and concentration in the banking system, and the occurrence of country-level systemic crises. Their primary measure of competition in the banking industry is Panzar and Rosse’s H-statistic. Concentration is measured using a concentration ratio of the three largest banks. They conclude that (i) competition and concentration measure two separate dimensions of the banking sector, and (ii) greater competition is associated with fewer systemic crises. Using data and code provided by the authors, we are able to exactly reproduce the original results of SCW. However, we find that their results are not generally robust. While we confirm their results on concentration, when we extend the data to the current period and use updated variable values, we find that competition, as measured by the H-statistic, is consistently insignificant across both duration and logit models.Item Open Access International Evidence on the Role of Monetary Policy in the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2013) Guender, A.V.Item Open Access What to Aim for? The Choice of an Inflation Objective when Openness Matters(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2016) Froyen, R.T.; Guender, A.V.Inflation targeting countries generally define the inflation objective in terms of the consumer price index. Studies in the academic literature, however, reach conflicting conclusions concerning which measure of inflation a central bank should target in a small open economy. This paper examines the properties of domestic, CPI, and real-exchange- rate-adjusted (REX) inflation targeting. In one class of open economy New Keynesian models there is an isomorphism between optimal policy in an open versus closed economy. In the type of model we consider, where the real exchange rate appears in the Phillips curve, this isomorphism breaks down; openness matters. REX inflation targeting restores the isomorphism but this may not be desirable. Instead, under domestic and CPI inflation targeting the exchange rate channel can be exploited to enhance the effects of monetary policy. Our results indicate that CPI inflation targeting delivers price stability across the three inflation objectives and will be desirable to a central bank with a high aversion to inflation instability. CPI inflation targeting also does a better job of stabilizing the real exchange rate and interest rate which is an advantage from the standpoint of financial stability. REX inflation targeting does well in achieving output stability and has an advantage if demand shocks are predominant. In general, the choice of the inflation objective affects the trade-offs between policy goals and thus policy choices and outcomes.Item Open Access Financial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypse(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2016) Bialkowski, J.; Ronn E.This paper brings together two strands of the literature: Quantifying the impact of apocalyptic risk on capital markets, and the correct computation of the equity risk premium. For the former, we use events in four countries during the Second World War to discern markets' incorporation of information regarding the probability of an Armageddon for each country. We then turn to analyzing the impact of a political col- lapse on the correct computation of the equity risk premium. Arguing that past computations did not properly account for the nancial implications of political collapse on prop- erty/civil/human rights, we argue past calculations overstated the equity risk premium. We provide a correct estimate of the equity risk premium, demonstrating the important changes in this estimate over time.Item Open Access What to Aim For? The Choice of an Inflation Objective When Openness Matters(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2013) Froyen, R.T.; Guender, A.V.Inflation targeting countries generally define the inflation objective in terms of the consumer price index. Studies in the academic literature, however, reach conflicting conclusions concerning which measure of inflation a central bank should target in a small open economy. This paper examines the properties of domestic, CPI, and real-exchange- rate-adjusted (REX) inflation targeting. In one class of open economy New Keynesian models there is an isomorphism between optimal monetary policy in an open versus closed economy. In the type of model we consider, where the real exchange rate appears in the Phillips curve, this isomorphism breaks down; openness matters. REX inflation targeting restores the isomorphism but this may not be desirable. Instead, under domestic and CPI inflation targeting the exchange rate channel can be exploited to enhance the effects of monetary policy. Our results indicate that CPI inflation targeting can deliver price stability across the three inflation objectives and will be desirable to a central bank with a high aversion to inflation instability. REX inflation targeting does well in delivering output stability and has a relative advantage in economies where demand shocks are predominant. In general, the choice of the inflation objective affects the trade-offs between policy goals and thus policy choices and outcomes.Item Open Access International Evidence on the Role of Monetary Policy in the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2015) Guender, A.V.CPI inflation targeting necessitates a flexible exchange rate regime. This paper embeds an endogenous target rule into a simple open economy macro model to explain the UIP puzzle. The model predicts that the change in the exchange rate is inversely related to the lagged interest rate differential. Openness and aversion to inflation variability determine the strength of this linkage. Foreign inflation and the foreign interest rate also affect exchange rate changes. This hypothesis is tested on data from three small open economies, Canada, Norway, and Switzerland, all of which target CPI inflation and maintain extensive trade and finance links with a larger neighboring country. Supportive evidence is strongest for Switzerland during a clean float period before the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis.Item Open Access Modeling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2013) Chen, P-Y.; Chang, C-L.; Chen, C-C.; McAleer, M.The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models, including GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR models, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. The empirical results from ARDL show that most fertilizer prices are significantly affected by the crude oil price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods.Item Open Access Ten Things You Should Know About the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Representation(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2013) Caporin, M.; McAleer, M.The purpose of the paper is to discuss ten things potential users should know about the limits of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) representation for estimating and fore-casting time-varying conditional correlations. The reasons given for caution about the use of DCC include the following: DCC represents the dynamic conditional covariances of the stand-ardized residuals, and hence does not yield dynamic conditional correlations; DCC is stated rather than derived; DCC has no moments; DCC does not have testable regularity conditions; DCC yields inconsistent two step estimators; DCC has no asymptotic properties; DCC is not a special case of GARCC, which has testable regularity conditions and standard asymptotic prop-erties; DCC is not dynamic empirically as the effect of news is typically extremely small; DCC cannot be distinguished empirically from diagonal BEKK in small systems; and DCC may be a useful filter or a diagnostic check, but it is not a model.Item Open Access Herding, Information Cascades and Volatility Spillovers in Futures Markets(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2013) McAleer, M.; Radalj, K.Economists and financial analysts have begun to recognise the importance of the actions of other agents in the decision-making process. Herding is the deliberate mimicking of the decisions of other agents. Examples of mimicry range from the choice of restaurant, fash-ion and financial market participants, to academic research. Herding may conjure negative images of irrational agents sheepishly following the actions of others, but such actions can be rational under asymmetric information and uncertainty. This paper uses futures position data in nine different markets of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to provide a direct test of herding behaviour, namely the extent to which small traders mimic the posi-tions of large speculators. Evidence consistent with herding among small traders is found for the Canadian dollar, British pound, gold, S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 futures. Consistent with survey-based results on technical analysis, the positions are significantly correlated with both current and past market returns. Using various time-varying volatility models to accommodate conditional heteroskedasticity, the empirical results are found to be robust to alternative models and methods of estimation. When a test of causality-in-variance is used to analyse if volatility among small traders spills over into spot markets, it is found that spillovers occur only with Nikkei 225 futures. The policy implications of the findings are also discussed.Item Open Access Transaction Costs, the Opportunity Cost of Time and Inertia in Charitable Giving(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2014) Knowles, S.; Servátka, M.We conduct a laboratory experiment to analyze the effect transactions costs and inertia have on charitable giving. We conjecture that transaction costs will have a greater effect on donations if the solicitation is received when the opportunity cost of time is high. Inertia could become a factor if people intend to give, but postpone making the payment until they have more time, and having postponed making the donation once, keep doing so. We find evidence of a transaction cost effect, with the size of this effect depending on the opportunity cost of time, but no statistically significant inertia effect.Item Open Access An Application of Correlation Clustering to Portfolio Diversification(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2014) Zhan, H.C.J.; Rea, W.; Rea, A.This paper presents a novel application of software developed for constructing a phylogenetic network to the correlation matrix for 126 stocks listed on the Shanghai A Stock Market. We show that by visualizing the correlation matrix using a Neighbor-Net network and using the circular ordering produced during the construction of the network we can reduce the risk of a diversified portfolio compared with random or industry group based selection methods in times of market increase.Item Open Access On the Invertibility of EGARCH(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2014) Martinet, G.G.; McAleer, M.Of the two most widely estimated univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models, the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification can capture asymmetry, which refers to the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, and leverage, which refers to the negative correlation between the returns shocks and subsequent shocks to volatility. However, the statistical properties of the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the EGARCH parameters are not available under general conditions, but only for special cases under highly restrictive and unverifiable conditions. A limitation in the development of asymptotic properties of the QMLE for EGARCH is the lack of an invertibility condition for the returns shocks underlying the model. It is shown in this paper that the EGARCH model can be derived from a stochastic process, for which the invertibility conditions can be stated simply and explicitly. This will be useful in re-interpreting the existing properties of the QMLE of the EGARCH parameters.Item Open Access What Do Experts Know About Forecasting Journal Quality? A Comparison with ISI Research Impact in Finance(University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2013) Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.Experts possess knowledge and information that are not publicly available. The paper is concerned with forecasting academic journal quality and research impact using a survey of international experts from a national project on ranking academic finance journals in Taiwan. A comparison is made with publicly available bibliometric data, namely the Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Sci-ence citations database (hereafter ISI) for the Business - Finance (hereafter Finance) category. The paper analyses the leading international journals in Finance using expert scores and quantifiable Research Assessment Measures (RAMs), and highlights the similarities and differences in the expert scores and alternative RAMs, where the RAMs are based on alternative transformations of citations taken from the ISI database. Alternative RAMs may be calculated annually or updated daily to answer the perennial questions as to When, Where and How (frequently) published papers are cited (see Chang et al. 2011a,b,c). The RAMs include the most widely used RAM, namely the classic 2-year impact factor including journal self citations (2YIF), 2-year impact factor excluding journal self citations (2YIF*), 5-year impact factor including journal self citations (5YIF), Immediacy (or zero-year impact factor, 0YIF), Eigenfactor, Article Influence, C3PO (Citation Performance Per Paper Online), h-index, PI-BETA (Papers Ignored - By Even The Authors), 2-year Self-citation Threshold Approval Ratings (2Y-STAR), Historical Self-citation Threshold Approval Ratings (H-STAR), Impact Factor Inflation (IFI), and Cited Article Influence (CAI). As data are not available for 5YIF, Article Influence and CAI for 13 of the leading 34 journals considered, 10 RAMs are analysed for 21 highly-cited journals in Finance. The harmonic mean of the ranks of the 10 RAMs for the 34 highly-cited journals are also presented. It is shown that emphasizing the 2-year impact factor of a journal, which partly answers the question as to When published papers are cited, to the exclusion of other informative RAMs, which answer Where and How (frequently) published papers are cited, can lead to a distorted evaluation of journal impact and influence relative to the Harmonic Mean rankings. A linear regression model is used to forecast expert scores on the basis of RAMs that capture journal impact, journal policy, the number of high quality papers, and quantitative in-formation about a journal. The robustness of the rankings is also analysed.