Abstract—Block based programming languages are a popular way to introduce computer programming to young students. However, concerns have been raised that students may not be learning important programming skills. Previous analyses of Scratch projects online have revealed that the use of important computational elements such as variables, if statements and controlled loops is extremely low, and introducing elementary patterns to the teaching sequence emerged as a potential solution. Although students might have success in the Scratch environment with a limited vocabulary of constructs, it has been pointed out in the literature that the transition process to a different programming language might be difficult. A concern with prior studies of a static analysis of uploaded Scratch projects is that they might be biased towards one-off or brief encounters with programming, where students have a short experience, upload a simple program, and share no further work. We address this concern in this study by measuring the progress of Scratch users over the years, particularly through their use of elementary patterns. Our study has identified all projects submitted by 34,832 users in the Scratch community, and for each user we have compared the skills demonstrated in the first half with those in the second half of their projects. There were no clear signs of any progression, and even some indications of negative progression, and even after more than a year of programming, for most users we found that the use of key elements of programming was still low.