An upper-branch Brewer-Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis (2016)
We ﬁnd that wintertime temperature anomalies near 4hPa and 50◦N/S are related, through dynamics, to anomalies in ozone and temperature, particularly in the tropical stratosphere but also throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. These mid-latitude anomalies occur on timescales of up to a month, and are related to changes in wave forcing. A change in the meridional Brewer–Dobson circulation extends from the middle stratosphere into the mesosphere and forms a temperature-change quadrupole from Equator to pole. We develop a dynamical index based on detrended, deseasonalised mid-latitude temperature. When employed in multiple linear regression, this index can account for up to 60% of the total variability of temperature, peaking at ∼5hPa and dropping to 0 at ∼50 and ∼0.5hPa, respectively, and increasing again into the mesosphere. Ozone similarly sees up to an additional 50%ofvariabilityaccountedfor,withaslightlyhighermaximum and strong altitude dependence, with zero improvement found at 10hPa. Further, the uncertainty on all equatorial multiple-linear regression coefﬁcients can be reduced byupto35and20%intemperatureandozone,respectively, and so this index is an important tool for quantifying current and future ozone recovery.
ANZSRC Fields of Research02 - Physical Sciences
37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370104 - Atmospheric composition, chemistry and processes
Rights© Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
The effect of atmospheric nudging on the stratospheric residual circulation in chemistry–climate models Chrysanthou A; Maycock AC; Chipperfield MP; Dhomse S; Garny H; Kinnison D; Akiyoshi H; Deushi M; Garcia RR; Jöckel P; Kirner O; Pitari G; Plummer DA; Revell L; Rozanov E; Stenke A; Tanaka TY; Visioni D; Yamashita Y (Copernicus GmbH, 2019)Abstract. We perform the first multi-model intercomparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation using hindcast simulations from the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). We ...
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI Ayarzaguena B; Polvani LM; Langematz U; Akiyoshi H; Bekki S; Butchart N; Dameris M; Deushi M; Hardiman SC; Jockel P; Klekociuk A; Marchand M; Michou M; Morgenstern O; O'Connor F; Oman LD; Plummer DA; Revell LE; Rozanov E; Saint-Martin D; Scinocca J; Stenke A; Stone K; Yamashita Y; Yoshida K; Zeng G (2018)Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-season ...
Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ozone radiative flux bias from satellites Kuai L; Bowman KW; Miyazaki K; Deushi M; Revell L; Rozanov E; Paulot F; Strode S; Conley A; Lamarque J-F; Jöckel P; Plummer DA; Oman LD; Worden H; Kulawik S; Paynter D; Stenke A; Kunze M (Copernicus GmbH, 2020)The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave flux over the 9.6 µm ozone band is a fundamental quantity for understanding chemistry–climate coupling. However, observed TOA fluxes are hard to estimate as they exhibit c ...