The sensitivity of stratospheric ozone through the 21st century to N2O and CH4

Type of content
Journal Article
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
English
Date
2012
Authors
Revell LE
Bodeker GE
Huck PE
Williamson BE
Rozanov E
Abstract

Through the 21st century, anthropogenic emissions of the greenhouse gases N 2 O and CH 4 are projected to increase, thus increasing their atmospheric concentrations. Consequently, reactive nitrogen species produced from N 2 O and reactive hydrogen species produced from CH 4 are expected to play an increasingly important role in determining stratospheric ozone concentrations. Eight chemistry-climate model simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to different emissions scenarios for N 2 O and CH 4 . Global-mean total column ozone increases through the 21st century in all eight simulations as a result of CO 2 -induced stratospheric cooling and decreasing stratospheric halogen concentrations. Larger N 2 O concentrations were associated with smaller ozone increases, due to reactive nitrogen-mediated ozone destruction. In the simulation with the largest N 2 O increase, global-mean total column ozone increased by 4.3 DU through the 21st century, compared with 10.0 DU in the simulation with the smallest N 2 O increase. In contrast, larger CH 4 concentrations were associated with larger ozone increases; global-mean total column ozone increased by 16.7 DU through the 21st century in the simulation with the largest CH 4 concentrations and by 4.4 DU in the simulation with the lowest CH 4 concentrations. CH 4 leads to ozone loss in the upper and lower stratosphere by increasing the rate of reactive hydrogen-mediated ozone loss cycles, however in the lower stratosphere and troposphere, CH 4 leads to ozone increases due to photochemical smog-type chemistry. In addition to this mechanism, total column ozone increases due to H 2 O-induced cooling of the stratosphere, and slowing of the chlorine-catalyzed ozone loss cycles due to an increased rate of the CH 4 + Cl reaction. Stratospheric column ozone through the 21st century exhibits a near-linear response to changes in N 2 O and CH 4 surface concentrations, which provides a simple parameterization for the ozone response to changes in these gases. © 2012 Author(s).

Description
Citation
Keywords
Science & Technology, Physical Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, GREENHOUSE GASES, NITROUS-OXIDE, MODEL, IMPACT, TRANSPORT, DEPLETION, RECOVERY
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370104 - Atmospheric composition, chemistry and processes
Field of Research::04 - Earth Sciences::0401 - Atmospheric Sciences::040104 - Climate Change Processes
Rights
© Author(s) 2012. CC Attribution 3.0 License.