Antarctic Futures: Governance, Scientific Expeditions, Commercial Tourism, Resource Exploitation and Climate Change

Abstract

Assessing and managing future effects is an inherent problem in environmental management and law applications. Antarctica is no exception. To assist with this problem, trend analyses are applied to understand the potential future impacts of scientific expeditions, commercial tourism, mineral resource exploitation and climate change on the Antarctic environment in 5-10 years and 30-50 years. Together with an understanding of the Antarctic Treaty System (“ATS”), this information is used to determine that the existing governance regime is expected to withstand the next 50 years; albeit considerable modification of legal instruments under the Antarctic Treaty (1959) (“Treaty”) being recommended in light of instability. Such modifications are principally required to address the impacts of scientific expeditions and commercial tourism. Refinement of existing policy is necessary to reduce the risk of a move towards mineral exploitation, which is not expected to occur within the next 50 years owing to stringent policy and decision-making processes already in place. Improved coordination of multilateral international agreements is also required to address the impacts of climate change. Sovereignty issues remain frozen, but unresolved under the ATS. They are likely to come to the forefront of decision-making processes at some stage over the next 50 years.