Ground motion simulation validation with explicit uncertainty incorporation for small magnitude earthquakes in New Zealand
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This study investigates the uncertainty of simulated earthquake ground motions for small magnitude events (Mw 3.5 – 5) in New Zealand. 600 ground motion events were simulated with specified uncertainties in: magnitude, hypocentre location, focal mechanism, source rupture shear wave velocity, high frequency rupture velocity, Brune stress parameter, the site 30m time averaged shear wave velocity (Vs30), anelastic attenuation (Q) and duration. In order to capture these parameter uncertainties, 50 realisations for each scenario was generated using the Graves and Pitarka (2015) hybrid broadband simulation approach. Ground motion intensity measure results were used to assess the systematic source, path and site effects across all realisations of the ground motion records. Validation of these effects was undertaken using the residual variances of past event observation data. The acceptability criteria for this study was to produce lower total standard deviation than the New Zealand empirical prediction models. Which would indicate that the ground motion simulations for small magnitude events in New Zealand can more accurately predict intensity measures of engineering interest. It is intended in future studies to extend this research to higher magnitude events.