Spatially‐explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies

Type of content
Journal Article
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
Wiley
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
English
Date
2020
Authors
O'Sullivan, David
Gahegan, Mark
Exeter, Dan
Adams, Ben
Abstract

This article describes two spatially-explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modelling spatially-explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalised models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a ‘one size fits all’ approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.

Description
Citation
O'Sullivan D, Gahegan M, Exeter D, Adams B Spatially‐explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies. Transactions in GIS. First published: 26 May 2020
Keywords
COVID-19, spatially-explicit infectious disease models, simulation, regional models
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
Fields of Research::33 - Built environment and design::3304 - Urban and regional planning::330499 - Urban and regional planning not elsewhere classified
Field of Research::16 - Studies in Human Society::1604 - Human Geography::160499 - Human Geography not elsewhere classified
Field of Research::11 - Medical and Health Sciences::1117 - Public Health and Health Services::111706 - Epidemiology
Rights
All rights reserved unless otherwise stated