Does the quality of political signals matter for financial markets? Evidence from return predictability

Type of content
Oral Presentation
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Publisher
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Date
2022
Authors
Wei X
Bialkowski, Jedrzej
Abstract

Investor sentiment and the variance risk premium are well-established learning-based predictors of aggregate stock market returns. This study investigates whether the return predictability of investor sentiment and the variance risk premium is impacted by the quality of political signals. Our analysis shows that low-quality political signals substantially weaken return predictability via a prolonged mispricing correction associated with lower market participation. The explanatory power of predictive regression models is significantly improved when a proxy for the quality of political signals is included. Overall, our robust findings provide evidence that low-quality political signals have a negative impact on the functioning of financial markets.

Description
Citation
Bialkowski J, Wei X (2022). Does the quality of political signals matter for financial markets? Evidence from return predictability. , 12/11/2022.
Keywords
Investor sentiment, Variance risk premium, Return predictability, Information quality, Quality of political signals, Qindex, Investors’ learning
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
Fields of Research::35 - Commerce, management, tourism and services::3502 - Banking, finance and investment
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All rights reserved unless otherwise stated