Financial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypse

dc.contributor.authorBialkowski, J.
dc.contributor.authorRonn E.
dc.description.abstractThis paper brings together two strands of the literature: Quantifying the impact of apocalyptic risk on capital markets, and the correct computation of the equity risk premium. For the former, we use events in four countries during the Second World War to discern markets' incorporation of information regarding the probability of an Armageddon for each country. We then turn to analyzing the impact of a political col- lapse on the correct computation of the equity risk premium. Arguing that past computations did not properly account for the nancial implications of political collapse on prop- erty/civil/human rights, we argue past calculations overstated the equity risk premium. We provide a correct estimate of the equity risk premium, demonstrating the important changes in this estimate over time.en
dc.identifier.citationBialkowski J., Ronn E., (2016) Financial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypse. Queenstown, New Zealand: 20th Annual New Zealand Finance Colloquium, February 11-12, 2016.en
dc.publisherUniversity of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Financeen
dc.subjectrare ("black swan") eventsen
dc.subjectequity premiumen
dc.subjectinternational political crisesen
dc.subjectcivil and human rightsen
dc.subjectWorld War IIen
dc.subject.anzsrcFields of Research::38 - Economics::3801 - Applied economics::380107 - Financial economicsen
dc.subject.anzsrcField of Research::14 - Economics::1402 - Applied Economics::140210 - International Economics and International Financeen
dc.titleFinancial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypseen
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