How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions And the Global Economy?

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dc.contributor.authorChu, L-F.
dc.contributor.authorMcAleer, M.
dc.contributor.authorChen, C-C.
dc.date.accessioned2014-11-05T22:54:03Z
dc.date.available2014-11-05T22:54:03Z
dc.date.issued2012en
dc.descriptionWorking paper No. 15/2012en
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Ninos Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse gas, and examines how these gases affect the frequency and strength of El Nino on the global economy. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately, and that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with even stronger El Nino or La Nina effects in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated.en
dc.identifier.citationChu, L-F., McAleer, M., Chen, C-C. (2012) How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions And the Global Economy?. University of Canterbury..en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10092/9797
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherUniversity of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Financeen
dc.rights.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651en
dc.subjectEl Ninos Southern Oscillations (ENSO)en
dc.subjectGreenhouse Gas Emissionsen
dc.subjectGlobal Economyen
dc.subjectSouthern Oscillation Index (SOI)en
dc.subjectSea Surface Temperature (SST)en
dc.subjectVolatility.en
dc.subject.anzsrcField of Research::04 - Earth Sciences::0401 - Atmospheric Sciences::040104 - Climate Change Processesen
dc.subject.anzsrcFields of Research::38 - Economics::3899 - Other economics::389902 - Ecological economicsen
dc.titleHow Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions And the Global Economy?en
dc.typeDiscussion / Working Papers
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