Scenarios for disaster risk management at caldera volcanoes
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Caldera volcanoes are recognized for being extended volcanic systems capable of producing very large, destructive, although relatively infrequent, explosive eruptions (VEI 6 or over). While large explosive eruptions are often a key concern for disaster risk management planning, caldera unrest is one of the most frequent events from calderas. Usually, it includes the activation of hydrothermal systems, the release of gases, triggering earthquakes, and ground deformation as a manifestation of changes in magma dynamics. Caldera unrest is highly challenging for risk management, given the high uncertainty in whether its occurrence may lead to an eruption and the comparatively less understood potential impacts on society. Planning disaster risk management strategies and operations in calderas requires addressing those uncertainties from caldera unrest and the wide range of potential eruptions through the coordination of multiple agencies at national, regional, and local levels. The need for multi-agency coordination adds another challenge to disaster risk management due to various agencies’ perspectives, interests, and requirements. The construction of “scenarios” has proven useful for emergency planning in variable and uncertain conditions, which might be useful for caldera risk management. Scenarios may work as “boundary objects” that intersect and produce information from science and practitioners’ expertise, addressing a common resource in support of agencies and in collaboration with others. The collaborative approach of producing scenarios allows scientific credibility and relevance for management practitioners in the resulting information. In this sense, how scenarios are produced is almost as important as the specific resulting scenarios, given that they require several discussions and building trust among participants. This research aims to compile and generate caldera eruption scenarios to support disaster risk management strategies for caldera volcanic activity. The research is split across three objectives: 1) identify the main challenges in caldera risk management (through a disaster risk assessment lens), 2) develop a scenario framework addressing those gaps and challenges, and 3) conceptualize the scenario development process and the embedded volcanic risk information. This thesis provides an introductory chapter providing details of this research's aims and objectives, and the three core thesis chapters address them. Those chapters include a literature review (chapter 2), co-development of a modular scenario framework (chapter 3), and the research engagement process to produce scenarios (chapter 4). The later chapters review relevant literature focused on calderas with particular attention on caldera unrest to define a conceptual framework for disaster risk management planning based on the production of scenarios. Calderas from Taupō Volcanic Zone Te Ahi Tupua (TVZ) in Aotearoa New Zealand, are then used as a case study, in which a collaborative process is initiated by the Caldera Advisory Group (CAG), which is a joint committee that includes agencies with the statutory responsibility for risk management for calderas at national, regional, and local levels, volcano scientists, and iwi-Māori (indigenous people of Aotearoa New Zealand) representatives. This research engagement process involved presentations, discussion meetings, workshops, and personal communication about specific information required to inform the development of management strategies at calderas. The need for producing hazard characterization capable of illustrating caldera unrest is defined in earlier stages of the engagement process. However, it is also stated that there is a need to represent impact and risk information rather than only hazards, which challenges the current knowledge about the potential consequences of caldera unrest. As a result of this process, a modular scenario framework is co-produced to include multiple pathways of potential activity over TVZ based on caldera unrest and eruption records. The scenario framework includes three stages of volcanic activity increasing in complexities for disaster risk management, including caldera unrest (module 1), transition unrest (module 2), and eruption (module 3), in which sequences could be arranged in different pathways, creating several short or long scenario sequences depending on users’ requirements. The modules include information about volcanic activity, the represented hazard and the amount of people and infrastructure exposed to those hazards. The thesis also describes the conceptual evolution of a modular scenario framework and its application in real case studies including a formal risk assessment for Transpower NZ, the Aotearoa New Zealand electrical grid operator, and supporting the risk communication response triggered by the TVC caldera unrest during 2022 and 2023. The thesis provides the lessons and recommendations for future co-production of scenarios and required advances in caldera volcanic risk modelling, especially for caldera unrest processes, such as ground shaking and deformation. A final summary chapter succinctly describes this research's components and conclusions.