Comparing five-year and ten-year predicted cardiovascular disease risk in Aotearoa New Zealand: national data linkage study of 1.7 million adults
| dc.contributor.author | Liang , Jingyuan | |
| dc.contributor.author | Wells S, Susan | |
| dc.contributor.author | Jackson , Rod | |
| dc.contributor.author | Choi , Yeunhyang | |
| dc.contributor.author | Mehta, Suneela | |
| dc.contributor.author | Chung, Claris Yee Seung | |
| dc.contributor.author | Gao , Pei | |
| dc.contributor.author | Poppe , Katrina | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-01-21T02:05:14Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-01-21T02:05:14Z | |
| dc.date.issued | online-publication-date | |
| dc.description.abstract | <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Aim</jats:title> <jats:p>There is no consensus on the optimal time horizon for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk to inform treatment decisions. New Zealand and Australia recommend 5 years, whereas most countries recommend 10 years. We compared predicted risk and treatment-eligible groups using 5-year and 10-year equations.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Methods</jats:title> <jats:p>Individual-level linked administrative datasets identified 1,746,665 New Zealanders without CVD, aged 30-74 years in 2006, with follow-up to 2018. Participants were randomly allocated to derivation and validation cohorts. Sex-specific 5-year and 10-year risk prediction models were developed in the derivation cohort and applied in the validation cohort.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Results</jats:title> <jats:p>28,116 (3.2%) and 62,027 (7.1%) first CVD events occurred during 5-years and 10-years follow-up respectively (cumulative risk, derivation cohort). Median predicted 10-year CVD risk (3.8%) was approximately 2.5 times 5-year risk (1.6%) and 95% of individuals in the top quintile of 5-year risk were also in the top quintile of 10-year risk, across age/gender groups (validation cohort). Using common guideline-recommended treatment thresholds (5% 5-year, 10% 10-year risk), approximately 14% and 28% of women and men respectively were identified as treatment-eligible applying 5-year equations compared to 17% and 32% of women and men applying 10-year equations. Older age was the major contributor to treatment eligibility in both sexes.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title> <jats:p>Predicted 10-year CVD risk was approximately 2.5 times 5-year risk. Both equations identified mostly the same individuals in the highest risk quintile. Conversely, commonly used treatment thresholds identified more treatment-eligible individuals using 10-year equations and both equations identified approximately twice as many treatment-eligible men as women. The treatment threshold, rather than the risk horizon, is the main determinant of treatment eligibility.</jats:p> </jats:sec> | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Liang J, Wells S, Jackson R, Choi Y, Mehta S, Chung C, Gao P, Poppe KK Comparing five-year and ten-year predicted cardiovascular disease risk in Aotearoa New Zealand: national data linkage study of 1.7 million adults. European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. | |
| dc.identifier.doi | http://doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwae361 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 2047-4873 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 2047-4881 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10092/107737 | |
| dc.language | en | |
| dc.publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) | |
| dc.rights | All rights reserved unless otherwise stated | |
| dc.rights.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651 | |
| dc.subject.anzsrc | 32 - Biomedical and clinical sciences::3201 - Cardiovascular medicine and haematology::320101 - Cardiology (incl. cardiovascular diseases) | |
| dc.title | Comparing five-year and ten-year predicted cardiovascular disease risk in Aotearoa New Zealand: national data linkage study of 1.7 million adults | |
| dc.type | Journal Article | |
| uc.college | UC Business School | |
| uc.department | Department of Accounting and Information Systems |