Forensic risk assessment tools almost exclusively measure factors that are associated with increased rates of recidivism, meaning factors that are associated with decreased rates of recidivism have historically been ignored, leaving risk assessment unbalanced. The present study is the first to investigate the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk – Sexual Offence version (SAPROF-SO), a new and unique tool designed to assess hypothesised protective factors against sexual recidivism in adult males. The study had a further aim of assessing the incremental validity of the SAPROF-SO over and above a well-validated measure of static risk (Static-99R). In this retrospective study, SAPROF-SO scores were informed by analysing archived case files of 210 men with convictions for child sexual offences. To minimise item omissions and maximise interrater reliability, a supplementary scoring guide theoretically aligned with the official manual was created and utilised. SAPROF-SO Total and Personal domain scores were significantly predictive of sexual recidivism after a long follow-up period (M = 12.24 years) with AUC values between .78 and .81. Total and Personal scores were also significantly predictive of violent and general recidivism, but to a lesser extent.

Professionally Provided Support domain scores were not significantly predictive of any type of offending. Total and Personal scores additionally provided significant incremental validity over and above Static-99R scores in the prediction of sexual recidivism. Results of the current study provide rationale for the inclusion of protective factors in risk assessment and invite further research validating this tool.