Systematically Biased Beliefs about Political Influence: Evidence from the Perceptions of Political Influence on Policy Outcomes Survey

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dc.contributor.authorCaplan, B.
dc.contributor.authorCrampton, E.
dc.contributor.authorGrove, W.
dc.contributor.authorSomin, I.
dc.date.accessioned2012-02-08T21:48:03Z
dc.date.available2012-02-08T21:48:03Z
dc.date.issued2011en
dc.description.abstractRetrospective voting circumvents many of voters' cognitive limitations, but if voters' attributional judgements are systematically biased, retrospective voting becomes an independent source of political failure. We design and administer a new survey of the general public and political experts to test for such biases. Our analysis reveals frequent, large, robust biases, with an overarching tendency for the public to overestimate politicians' ability to influence outcomes. Retrospective voting usually gives elected leaders supraoptimal incentives, though there are important cases where the reverse holds.en
dc.identifier.citationCaplan, B., Crampton E., Grove W., Somin, I. (2011) Systematically Biased Beliefs about Political Influence: Evidence from the Perceptions of Political Influence on Policy Outcomes Survey. Wellington, New Zealand: New Zealand Economics Association Conference 2011, 29 Jun-1 Jul 2011. 49.en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10092/6280
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherUniversity of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Financeen
dc.relation.urihttp://www.nzae.org.nz/event/nzae-conference-2011/programme/en
dc.rights.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651en
dc.subjectPublic choiceen
dc.subjectVoter preferencesen
dc.subject.anzsrcField of Research::16 - Studies in Human Society::1606 - Political Science::160609 - Political Theory and Political Philosophyen
dc.titleSystematically Biased Beliefs about Political Influence: Evidence from the Perceptions of Political Influence on Policy Outcomes Surveyen
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