A variable asymptote logistic (VAL) model to forecast electricity consumption

Type of content
Journal Article
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
University of Canterbury. Electrical and Computer Engineering.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
Date
2005
Authors
Mohamed, Z.
Bodger, P.S.
Abstract

The logistic model has been very effective in forecasting many technological forecasting patterns. However, it has the characteristic of underestimating the forecasts in many situations. This is mainly due to the constraints imposed by the constant saturation level of the logistic growth curve. This paper proposes a variable asymptote logistic (VAL) model for forecasting electricity consumption in New Zealand. The saturation level of electricity consumption is found by the respective degree of correlation with the population of the country and the price of electricity. This is used as a variable asymptote in this logistic model and hence the name variable asymptote logistic (VAL) model. The VAL model gave lower forecasting errors than the logistic model and gave future forecasts that are higher than the logistic model. The software package MATLAB is used in all stages of the simulation.

Description
Citation
Mohamed, Z., Bodger, P.S. (2005) A variable asymptote logistic (VAL) model to forecast electricity consumption. International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, 22(2-3), pp. 65-72.
Keywords
forecasting electricity, forecasting accuracy, logistic model
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
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