Ground Motion Simulations of upper North Island Earthquakes
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Abstract
Active faults in low strain-rate regions of New Zealand sill pose a significant hazard where they are near to large population centres. Such regions typically have sparse monitoring and few recorded events. About 40% of New Zealand’s population is located within 50 km of the Wairoa North Fault, the Kerepehi Fault and its possible offshore extension in the Firth of Thames. Prior studies in the area indicate these faults have been active within the past 10ka, generating events between Mw 5.5 for single event rupture, potentially up to Mw 7.4 in the event of a multiple segment rupture. We have simulated ground motions arising from possible rupture scenarios on these faults, including uncertainty around directivity, the possibility of ruptures hopping multiple fault segments, and the effect of low velocity sediments within the Hauraki Rift. Our results point to several areas where further data collection could improve our understanding of seismic hazard in the Upper North Island.