Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

Type of content
Discussion / Working Papers
Publisher's DOI/URI
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
Date
2013
Authors
Chu, F-L.
McAleer, M.
Abstract

In this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model. The non-stationary model means that the parameter of location of the GEV distribution is formulated as linear and quadratic functions of time to detect temporal trends in the maximum rainfall. Future behavior refers to the return level and the return period of the extreme rainfall. The 10, 20, 50 and 100-years return levels and their 95% confidence intervals of the return levels stationary models are provided. The return period is calculated based on the record-high (ranked 1st) extreme rainfall brought by the top 10 typhoons for each station in Taiwan. The estimates show that non-stationary model with increasing trend is suitable for the Kaohsiung, Hengchun, Taitung and Dawu stations. The Kaohsing and Hengchun stations have greater trends than the other two stations, showing that the positive trend extreme rainfall in the southern region is greater than in the eastern region of Taiwan. In addition, the Keelung, Anbu, Zhuzihu, Tamsui, Yilan, Taipei, Hsinchu, Taichung, Alishan, Yushan and Tainan stations are fitted well with the Gumbel distribution, while the Sun Moon Lake, Hualien and Chenggong stations are fitted well with the GEV distribution

Description
Citation
Chu, F-L., McAleer, M. (2013) Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan..
Keywords
Extreme theory, Extreme rainfall, Return level, Typhoon.
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
Fields of Research::49 - Mathematical sciences::4905 - Statistics::490510 - Stochastic analysis and modelling
Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370108 - Meteorology
Rights