Market Microstructure and Day-of-the-Week Return Patterns
Degree GrantorUniversity of Canterbury
Degree NameDoctor of Philosophy
This paper documents a major shift in market microstructure during the period 1990 through 1999. In particular, a dramatic change in the pattern of cash flows by individual and institutional investors is documented. The question becomes, what effect this change has on day-of-the-week return patterns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard and Poor's 500 index, and Standard and Poor's 500 index futures. I find Monday's return pattern has changed in the decade of the 1990's. Not only is Monday's mean return significantly large and positive for all indices, the entire anomalous pattern occurs from Monday's open to Monday's close - an intraday effect. In addition, I find evidence that trading volume is a factor in explaining the anomalous behaviour of Monday's returns. New York Stock Exchange trading volume is significantly lower on Mondays from the trading volume of other days of the week but the trading activity of individual investors is significantly higher. More recently, individual investors have increased their buying activity on Mondays relative to prior periods. Finally, Monday exhibits the largest returns in the first two trading hours when the Dow Jones Industrial Average returns are decomposed into hourly returns. The research emphasizes the dynamic nature of the time series patterns of stock returns and the suggestion day-of-the-week return patterns are not robust over time. Therefore, familiarity with market microstructure issues is just as important as the statistical techniques utilized.