A comparison of Logistic and Harvey models for electricity consumption in New Zealand

Type of content
Journal Article
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
University of Canterbury. Electrical and Computer Engineering.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
Date
2005
Authors
Mohamed, Z.
Bodger, P.S.
Abstract

There have been a number of forecasting models based on various forms of the logistic growth curve. This paper investigates the effectiveness of two forms of Harvey models and a Logistic model for forecasting electricity consumption in New Zealand. The three growth curve models are applied to the Domestic and Non-Domestic sectors and Total electricity consumption in New Zealand. The developed models are compared using their goodness of fit to historical data and forecasting accuracy over a period of 19 years. The comparison revealed that the Harvey model is a very appropriate candidate for forecasting electricity consumption in New Zealand. The developed models are also compared with some available national forecasts.

Description
Citation
Mohamed, Z., Bodger, P.S. (2005) A comparison of Logistic and Harvey models for electricity consumption in New Zealand. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72(2), pp. 1030-1043.
Keywords
forecasting, energy, growth curve models, logistic growth
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
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