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    Evaluation of the New Zealand Electricity Generation Expansion in Meeting Dry Year Demands (2011)

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    UC Permalink
    http://hdl.handle.net/10092/6244
    
    Publisher's DOI/URI
    https://doi.org/10.1109/PTC.2011.6019204
    
    Publisher
    University of Canterbury. Electrical and Computer Engineering
    Collections
    • Engineering: Conference Contributions [2299]
    Authors
    Syed Jalal, T.
    Bodger, P.
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    Abstract

    After the commencement of the New Zealand Electricity Market (NZEM) in October 1996, generation expansion was made based on the wholesale electricity prices rather than through coordinated government planning. Since then, the installed generation capacity in New Zealand has been observed to follow a bust and boom pattern, resulting in energy shortages during dry winter years. A System Dynamics (SD) model has been developed to study the bust and boom trend. The model is then extended to evaluate whether the generation expansion proposed by the 2008 Statement of Opportunity (SOO2008) will be able to meet future dry winter year demands under the current market mechanism. The evaluation takes into account New Zealand’s main storage lake cycles and the El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The evaluation shows New Zealand is likely to face future energy shortages during dry years unless mitigation actions are taken.

    Keywords
    power generation planning; power generation availability; power generation reliability; power system simulation; reliability modeling
    ANZSRC Fields of Research
    09 - Engineering::0906 - Electrical and Electronic Engineering::090607 - Power and Energy Systems Engineering (excl. Renewable Power)
    Rights
    https://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651

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    • The Development of a System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Electricity Generation Expansion In New Zealand 

      Syed Jalal, T.; Bodger, P. (University of Canterbury. Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2010)
      Many countries exhibited cycles of shortfall and overbuilding (bust and boom) of their installed generation capacity after they restructured their electricity industries. A similar pattern has also been observed in New ...
    • The Development Of A System Dynamics Model For Electricity Generation Expansion In New Zealand 

      Jalal, T.S.; Bodger, P. (University of Canterbury. Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2010)
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    • Evaluating the Impacts of Generation Capacity Cycles in New Zealand 

      Syed Jalal, T.; Bodger, P. (University of Canterbury. Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2011)
      Since the commencement of the Electricity Market(NZEM) in October 1996, generation expansion in New Zealand is made based on profit anticipation from the wholesale electricity spot price rather than through coordinated ...
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