Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using Nonlinear Regression Quantiles and the Intra-day Range

Type of content
Discussion / Working Papers
Publisher's DOI/URI
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
College of Business and Economics
University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
Date
2011
Authors
Chen, C.W.S.
Gerlach, R.
Hwang, B.B.K.
McAleer, M.
Abstract

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is commonly used for financial risk measurement. It has recently become even more important, especially during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. We propose some novel nonlinear threshold conditional autoregressive VaR (CAViaR) models that incorporate intra-day price ranges. Model estimation and inference are performed using the Bayesian approach via the link with the Skewed-Laplace distribution. We examine how a range of risk models perform during the 2008-09 financial crisis, and evaluate how the crisis affects the performance of risk models via forecasting VaR. Empirical analysis is conducted on five Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation stock market indices as well as two exchange rate series. We examine violation rates, back-testing criteria, market risk charges and quantile loss function values to measure and assess the forecasting performance of a variety of risk models. The proposed threshold CAViaR model, incorporating range information, is shown to forecast VaR more efficiently than other models, across the series considered, which should be useful for financial practitioners.

Description
RePEc Working Paper Series: No. 22/2011
Citation
Chen, C.W.S., Gerlach, R., Hwang, B.B.K., McAleer, M. (2011) Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using Nonlinear Regression Quantiles and the Intra-day Range. Department of Economics and Finance. 41pp..
Keywords
Value-at-Risk, CAViaR model, Skewed-Laplace distribution, intra-day range, backtesting, Markov chain Monte Carlo
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
Fields of Research::38 - Economics::3802 - Econometrics::380203 - Economic models and forecasting
Fields of Research::38 - Economics::3801 - Applied economics::380107 - Financial economics
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