Is There a Speculative Bubble in the Price of Gold?
Motivated by the current gold price boom, we investigate whether the rapidly growing investment activities have triggered a new asset price bubble. We draw on the convenience yield model and use commodity dividends to derive gold's fundamental value. Based on the deviations of the actual gold price from its fundamental value, we apply a Markov regime-switching Augmented Dickey- Fuller test to detect ex post and identify ex ante speculative gold price bubbles. The empirical evidence is favorable for a fundamentally justified price level even during the current period of a drastically rising gold price.