Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions

Type of content
Discussion / Working Papers
Publisher's DOI/URI
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
College of Business and Economics
University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
Date
2011
Authors
Franses, P.H.
Chang, C.L.
McAleer, M.
Abstract

It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current revisions on one-period lagged revisions. Under weak-form efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The empirical findings in the literature suggest that the null hypothesis of zero correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions is rejected quite frequently, where the correlation can be either positive or negative. In this paper we propose a methodology to be able to interpret such non-zero correlations in a straightforward manner. Our approach is based on the assumption that forecasts can be decomposed into both an econometric model and expert intuition. The interpretation of the sign of the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions depends on the process governing intuition, and the correlation between intuition and news.

Description
RePEc Working Paper Series: No. 25/2011
Citation
Franses, P.H., Chang, C.L., McAleer, M. (2011) Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions. Department of Economics and Finance. 21pp..
Keywords
Evaluating forecasts, Macroeconomic forecasting, Rationality, Intuition, Weak-form efficiency, Fixed-event forecasts
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
Field of Research::14 - Economics
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