Using Model Selection Algorthims to Obtain Reliable Coefficient Estimates

Type of content
Discussion / Working Papers
Publisher's DOI/URI
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
College of Business and Economics
University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
Date
2011
Authors
Castle, J.L.
Qin, X.
Reed, W.R.
Abstract

This review surveys a number of common Model Selection Algorithms (MSAs), discusses how they relate to each other, and identifies factors that explain their relative performances. At the heart of MSA performance is the trade-off between Type I and Type II errors. Some relevant variables will be mistakenly excluded, and some irrelevant variables will be retained by chance. A successful MSA will find the optimal trade-off between the two types of errors for a given data environment. Whether a given MSA will be successful in a given environment depends on the relative costs of these two types of errors. We use Monte Carlo experimentation to illustrate these issues. We confirm that no MSA does best in all circumstances. Even the worst MSA in terms of overall performance – the strategy of including all candidate variables – sometimes performs best (viz., when all candidate variables are relevant). We also show how (i) the ratio of relevant to total candidate variables and (ii) DGP noise affect relative MSA performance. Finally, we discuss a number of issues complicating the task of MSAs in producing reliable coefficient estimates.

Description
RePEc Working Paper Series: No. 03/2011
Citation
Castle, J.L., Qin, X., Reed, W.R. (2011) Using Model Selection Algorthims to Obtain Reliable Coefficient Estimates. Department of Economics and Finance. 51pp..
Keywords
model selection algorithms, information criteria, general-to-specific modeling, Bayesian model averaging, portfolio models, AIC, SIC, AICc, SICc, Monte Carlo analysis, autometrics
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
Fields of Research::38 - Economics::3802 - Econometrics::380203 - Economic models and forecasting
Fields of Research::49 - Mathematical sciences::4903 - Numerical and computational mathematics::490302 - Numerical analysis
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