Assessing the risk to suburban activities associated with transport energy availability as a function of urban form
This paper describes method to model the energy reliance of transport activities within a suburb. The method employs risk analysis techniques to determine the vulnerability of suburban developments to a fuel shortage event or crisis. The focus of this work is on preliminary assessments of the vulnerability of developments, not on determining post-crisis behavior changes, which may affect mode choices and travel patterns. Energy shortages are modeled as a constraint on existing levels of fuel consumption and vulnerability is determined by comparing current residential fuel consumption to a constrained energy availability scenario (fuel shortage). A case study in a new suburban development in Christchurch, New Zealand, illustrates the vulnerability for accessing an important activity, food shopping, and indicates the degree of impact which would precipitate behavioral and physical changes.