Energy reliance, urban form and the associated risk to urban activities
Current transport energy supply is finite; it will peak and decline. Replacement renewable energy resources will not match current consumption levels. Transport systems will be subject to supply shortages and increasing constraints. Currently, transport planning does not consider energy supply disruptions or constraints. However, energy supply fluctuations and shortages severely affect transport systems. Spatial patterns and activity systems combine to produce the transport-energy requirements of a region. A newly derived method was created to assess transport-energy reliance for suburban/urban areas. The method differs from traditional transport modelling because it is concerned with energy capacity, not road capacity. Transport behaviour occurring within the built environment and activity system of a suburb are analysed. A case study was performed so that the derived method could be applied to a real situation. Simulations of behaviour modification produced a maximum of a 64% reduction in transport energy consumption for the study region. One hunderd percent resilience/reduction (zero reliance on transport energy) was only achieved through modifying the spatial layout of the built environment. The method adds a new dimension to transport modelling: understanding the risk of reliance on transport-energy for suburban/urban areas.