An analysis of New Zealand’s import commodities and potential implications for New Zealand’s log exporters
Degree GrantorUniversity of Canterbury
Degree LevelBachelors with Honours
Degree NameBachelor of Forestry Science (Hons)
This report found that there is an increasing log vessel supply and a stagnate log vessel supply in New Zealand between 2012 – 2017 for the year ending 30th June. It was concluded that log vessel demand is likely to continue in the near future as China’s domestic demand continues to grow as a consequence of the nation’s ban for production harvesting of native forests, and the forests planted in the 1990’s planting boom nearing maturity. There was no signals of an increasing level of log vessel supply to New Zealand in the near future. Consequently, competition to attain contracts for the use of log vessels is anticipated to grow.
Palm Kernel Expeller, Aluminium Oxide and Phosphates commodities were found to have an average market share of 59.5% of New Zealand’s log vessel supply over the observed period. Consequently it is recommended to develop relationships with companies that import these commodities into New Zealand, to acquire inside information about what is happening in terms of log vessel supply. It also allows log exporters to focus their time and resources on a few commodities that have consistently provided the majority market share.
Of the identified key commodities, Aluminium Oxide was found to be relatively constant due to there being one customer in New Zealand for this product. However the other key commodities were relatively more volatile in the log vessel supply in a monthly and quarterly basis. There was found to be no significant relationship between the milk solid price at farmgate and New Zealand’s import quantity of Palm Kernel Expeller, despite speculation.
Overall it is recommended that log exporting companies the likes of Pacific Forest Products Ltd. develop long-term contracts with vessel owners as the log vessel competition appears to be continuing on the increasing trajectory. This report also provides some recommendations for further study to be completed in order to better understand New Zealand’s log vessel supply.