Forecasting Electricity Consumption: A Comparison of Models for New Zealand and the Maldives

Type of content
Conference Contributions - Published
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Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
University of Canterbury. Electrical and Computer Engineering.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
Date
2004
Authors
Mohamed, Z.
Bodger, P.S.
Hume, D.J.
Abstract

This paper compares the forecasting ability of six electricity forecasting models for New Zealand and the Maldives. They are three growth curve models (Logistic, Harvey Logistic and Harvey models), a multiple linear regression model proposed using economic and demographic factors referred to as the Combined model, a growth curve model that uses economic and demographic factors referred to as the Variable Asymptote Logistic (VAL) model and a Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. The models are compared using goodness of fit to the historical consumption data and their forecasting accuracy in the short, medium and long term. The analyses of the six presented forecasting models showed that the best overall model is the Harvey model that generally gave more accurate or comparable forecasts than the more complex ARIMA and Combined models. This shows that the simple Harvey model could play a significant role in forecasting electricity.

Description
Citation
Mohamed, Z., Bodger, P.S., Hume, D.J. (2004) Forecasting Electricity Consumption: A Comparison of Models for New Zealand and the Maldives. Kathmandu, Nepal: International Conference on Power Systems, 3-5 Nov 2004. 6 pp.
Keywords
ARIMA models, forecasting, power demand, error analysis, time series analysis
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
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