Predicting recidivism among an adult male child sexual abuse imagery offender population with the child pornography offender risk tool short version (CPORT-SV) : a New Zealand validation study.

Abstract

The prevalence of Child Sexual Abuse Imagery (CSAI) is ever increasing with the advancement of technology in today’s world, and with that is an increase of risk of reconviction for CSAI offences. Therefore, it is imperative to have empirical evidence for the assessment of recidivism risk with measures validated both internationally and here in New Zealand. The present study utilised New Zealand of Corrections data for the population of individuals that were convicted of a CSAI offence between the years 1998 to 2014 (N = 552). The primary aim was to evaluate the predictive validity of the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool – Short Version (CPORT-SV) (Seto & Eke, 2015) an internationally recognised structured checklist designed to predict sexual recidivism among adult male offenders with a conviction for CSAI. An additional goal was to explore whether the CPORT-SVs predictive accuracy might be improved by supplementing additional variables taken from the risk tool currently in use in the Department of Corrections, but not designed specifically for CSAI offenders, the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale (ASRS) (Skelton, Riley, Wales, & Vess, 2006). Results showed concurrent validity for the CPORT-SV with the ASRS, as well as, the CPORT-SV being significantly associated with all four recidivism outcomes explored (any, any sexual, sexual contact, and CSAI). Logistic regression and area under the curve (AUC) analyses identified that supplementing the CPORT-SV with item 1 from the ASRS (any prior sexual offences) improved the predictive accuracy with regard to CSAI recidivism in particular. Comparative AUCs were 0.77 for CPORT-SV alone, and 0.82 for CPORT-SV plus ASRS item 1. The present findings support previous results from Seto and Eke (2015) with a focus on CSAI recidivism, endorsing the utility of the CPORT-SV in the New Zealand context.