On-going challenges in physics-based ground motion prediction and insights from the 2010-2011 Canterbury and 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquakes (2017)
Type of ContentConference Contributions - Published
This paper presents on-going challenges in the present paradigm shift of earthquakeinduced ground motion prediction from empirical to physics-based simulation methods. The 2010-2011 Canterbury and 2016 Kaikoura earthquakes are used to illustrate the predictive potential of the different methods. On-going efforts on simulation validation and theoretical developments are then presented, as well as the demands associated with the need for explicit consideration of modelling uncertainties. Finally, discussion is also given to the tools and databases needed for the efficient utilization of simulated ground motions both in specific engineering projects as well as for near-real-time impact assessment.
KeywordsPhysics-based ground motion simulation; 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes; 2016 Kaikoura earthquake
ANZSRC Fields of Research40 - Engineering::4005 - Civil engineering::400506 - Earthquake engineering
37 - Earth sciences::3706 - Geophysics::370609 - Seismology and seismic exploration
RightsCreative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License
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