Antarctica in the Year 2105: What Physical Changes Might We Expect?
Degree GrantorUniversity of Canterbury
Degree LevelPostgraduate Certificate
Degree NamePostgraduate Certificate in Antarctic Studies
This report investigates possible changes to the Antarctic environment due to climate change over the next one hundred years. Three scenarios have been developed in order to assess the response of the Antarctic to different rates of climate change resulting from anthropogenic influences. According to the predictions made in this report, there are no significant differences between the pessimistic scenario (which assumes a further increase in greenhouse gas emissions) and the realistic scenario (which assumes no strengthening in greenhouse gas emission rates). The optimistic scenario (which assumes global effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions) results in slower and more gradual changes to the physical environment. However, due to the slow response of the Earth’s climate system, a significant global warming is still expected by the year 2105. All scenarios predict dramatic changes over the Antarctic Peninsula in 2105. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is not expected to collapse, and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet will remain relatively unaffected.
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