Weather Forecasting Accuracy Ross Island, Antarctica

Abstract

The forecast accuracy of AMPS (Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System) for the Ross Island region was analysed during 20th to 31st December 2009. Forecast outputs are correlated with AWS (automatic weather stations) observations at five sites around Ross Island. Results are presented in the appendix. Appendix 1 presents the PCAS (Post Graduate Certificate in Antarctica Studies) AWS observations and corresponding forecasts, appendix 2 Windless Bight AWS, appendix 3 Willie Field AWS, appendix 4 Emilia AWS and appendix 5 is a case study of Christmas day. Air pressure was forecasted the most accurately for all forecast hours, resulting in a <3hpa variance and AMPS bias not greater than -2.45hpa. The timing of a change in temperature was accurately forecasted within 2 hours but the extent of the change was less accurate. Relative humidly was lower than forecasted over Christmas day with a +16% AMPS bias. This paper discusses the most notable results found in the appendix in an aim to determine forecast accuracy.