A Study into the Cyclical Performance of the New Zealand Construction Industry

Abstract

The aim of this study is to establish and communicate a shared understanding of the key drivers in the boom/bust cycles of the construction industry in New Zealand. This shared understanding will allow for interventions and policy making to be more effective and responsive. It should also inform the industry about what it needs to know in terms of quantitative or qualitative data that would help further explain the interplay and interactions between the industry players, the environment, other industries and government. Traditional econometric modelling, both macro & micro, of economic cycles is notoriously difficult and is dependant on high quality time series data. Where behaviours and perceptions are involved, the modelling quickly becomes too complex to be satisfactory.