Old conflicts in a new era : the reality of intractable conflicts in the twenty-first century

Abstract

This thesis proposes that while the overall rate of new internal conflicts is decreasing globally, the persistence of some internal conflicts over several generations necessitates the need for renewed understanding of what makes conflicts prone to intractability with high levels of human destruction and societal violence. International efforts to resolve such conflicts have overwhelmingly met with failure, due to inadequate conflict resolution strategies and because of the nature of intractable conflicts where high stakes and zero-sum issues convince the parties in conflict that settlement is too costly. Thus, there is a need for a comprehensive theoretical framework to provide a clear and informative description of intractable conflicts for the development of conflict resolution strategies. In this study, a theoretical model is developed that suggests intractable conflicts are the result of a unique combination of strnctural and process variables. This approach argues that while the causes of internal conflict are numerous, there are certain variables that deepen the parties' commitment to conflict and increase their perception of the risks and costs of settlement, thus deterring efforts towards peace and encouraging intractable conflict. Structural variables create a climate conducive to intractability and process causes catalyse the development of intractable conflict. This framework, called the Structural-Process model, is tested against four case studies for its descriptive and predictive value and it is concluded that the Strnctural-Process model provides valuable theoretical understanding of intractable conflict, especially those which are active in form, where violence is overt and ongoing. It was also concluded that the model could have future use in predicting the likelihood of intractable conflict development in cases of internal conflict.