Midterm elections’ stock market surge: An unintentional gift from US politicians (2019)
Our article offers a scholarly scrutiny of the midterm election effect on the U.S. equity market. We first examine whether any pattern is present in the U.S. stock returns after the midterm elections and then carefully document the magnitude of it. Second, we compare the post-election stock market cycles for the presidential and the midterm elections. Finally, we examine whether fiscal or monetary policies are solely causing the distinctive return pattern.
CitationBialkowski JP, Nahavandi A (2019). Midterm elections’ stock market surge: An unintentional gift from US politicians. Journal of Wealth Management. 21(4). 76-84.
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ANZSRC Fields of Research35 - Commerce, management, tourism and services::3502 - Banking, finance and investment::350208 - Investment and risk management
35 - Commerce, management, tourism and services::3502 - Banking, finance and investment::350207 - International finance
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Bialkowski, J.; Nahavandi, A. (2018)The paper provides evidence for the existence of a midterm election effect on the US equity market. By examining the quarterly total returns on the S&P 500 Index between 1954 and 2017, we show that, nine times out of 10, ...
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Bialkowski, J.; Wisniewski, T.P.; Gottschalk, K. (University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance, 2006)In a sample of 27 OECD countries, this paper investigates whether the event of a national election induces higher stock market volatility. It is found that the country- specific component of index return variance can ...