High policy uncertainty and low implied market volatility – an academic puzzle?

Type of content
Journal Article
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
Date
2022
Authors
Wei X
Bialkowski, Jedrzej
Dang, Huong Dieu
Abstract

Motivated by the extremely low level of the CBOE VIX accompanied by the high level of US economic policy uncertainty in the period of late 2016 to the end of 2017, we examine the factors affecting the relationship between market volatility and economic policy uncertainty in the United States and the United Kingdom. Our analysis shows that low-quality political signals, higher opinion divergence among investors, and exceptional equity market performance consistently weaken the positive relationship between implied market volatility and policy uncertainty. Our findings help to explain the divergence between the market volatility index and economic policy uncertainty post the 2016 US presidential election and the UK Brexit referendum.

Description
Citation
Bialkowski J, Dang H, Wei X (2022). High policy uncertainty and low implied market volatility – an academic puzzle? (forthcoming). Journal of Financial Economics.
Keywords
VIX, VTSE, Economic policy uncertainty, Baker-Bloom-Davis index, Quality of political signals, Investor sentiment, Bullish market, Investors’ opinions
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
1402 Applied Economics
1502 Banking, Finance and Investment
1606 Political Science
Fields of Research::35 - Commerce, management, tourism and services::3502 - Banking, finance and investment::350208 - Investment and risk management
Fields of Research::38 - Economics::3801 - Applied economics::380107 - Financial economics
Fields of Research::44 - Human society::4407 - Policy and administration::440703 - Economic development policy
Rights
©2021The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license