Addressing New Zealand’s oil security in 2040 : policymaking in an uncertain world

Abstract

Oil remains one of the most important resources for the operation of New Zealand’s economy and society. Having an accurate perception of the country’s oil supply security and the effectiveness of security-improving policies is therefore vital. Noting this importance, the aim of this thesis is to determine whether geopolitical uncertainty over the long-term is appropriately addressed within New Zealand’s current oil security assessments and policymaking.

This study examines New Zealand’s current oil security assessments through document analysis and utilising a scenario-based approach. It identifies a number of assumptions within New Zealand’s current assessments regarding the capacity and capability of the market to respond to significant disruptions caused by geopolitical events, and existing policy viability and effectiveness. It also identifies limitations within these assessments, including that the analyses are limited to short time horizons. The study concludes that New Zealand’s current oil security assessments and corresponding policy recommendations do not adequately address geopolitical uncertainty. Furthermore, it identifies a number of related variables that are also not adequately considered. To help address these identified shortcomings, this study presents a schedule of recommendations to improve the efficacy of New Zealand’s oil security assessments and policymaking.