Forecasting Co-Volatilities via Factor Models with Asymmetry and Long Memory in Realized Covariance

Type of content
Discussion / Working Papers
Publisher's DOI/URI
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
Date
2014
Authors
Asai, M.
McAleer, M.
Abstract

Modelling covariance structures is known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In order to avoid this problem for forecasting, the authors propose a new factor multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) model for realized covariance measures that accommodates asymmetry and long memory. Using the basic structure of the fMSV model, the authors extend the dynamic correlation MSV model, the conditional/stochastic Wishart autoregressive models, the matrix-exponential MSV model, and the Cholesky MSV model. Empirical results for 7 financial asset returns for US stock returns indicate that the new fMSV models outperform existing dynamic conditional correlation models for forecasting future covariances. Among the new fMSV models, the Cholesky MSV model with long memory and asymmetry shows stable and better forecasting performance for one-day, five-day and ten-day horizons in the periods before, during and after the global financial crisis.

Description
Citation
Asai, M., McAleer, M., (2014) Forecasting Co-Volatilities via Factor Models with Asymmetry and Long Memory in Realized Covariance. University of Canterbury. 35pp..
Keywords
Dimension reduction, Factor Model, Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, Leverage Effects, Long Memory, Realized Volatility
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
Fields of Research::35 - Commerce, management, tourism and services::3502 - Banking, finance and investment::350203 - Financial econometrics
Fields of Research::35 - Commerce, management, tourism and services::3502 - Banking, finance and investment::350208 - Investment and risk management
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