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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10092/6280

Title: Systematically Biased Beliefs about Political Influence: Evidence from the Perceptions of Political Influence on Policy Outcomes Survey
Authors: Caplan, B.
Crampton, E.
Grove, W.
Somin, I.
Keywords: Public choice
Voter preferences
Issue Date: 2011
Citation: Caplan, B., Crampton E., Grove W., Somin, I. (2011) Systematically Biased Beliefs about Political Influence: Evidence from the Perceptions of Political Influence on Policy Outcomes Survey. Wellington, New Zealand: New Zealand Economics Association Conference 2011, 29 Jun-1 Jul 2011. 49.
Source: http://www.nzae.org.nz/event/nzae-conference-2011/programme/
Abstract: Retrospective voting circumvents many of voters' cognitive limitations, but if voters' attributional judgements are systematically biased, retrospective voting becomes an independent source of political failure. We design and administer a new survey of the general public and political experts to test for such biases. Our analysis reveals frequent, large, robust biases, with an overarching tendency for the public to overestimate politicians' ability to influence outcomes. Retrospective voting usually gives elected leaders supraoptimal incentives, though there are important cases where the reverse holds.
Publisher: University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance
Research Fields: Field of Research::16 - Studies in Human Society::1606 - Political Science::160609 - Political Theory and Political Philosophy
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10092/6280
Rights URI: http://library.canterbury.ac.nz/ir/rights.shtml
Appears in Collections:Business and Law: Conference Contributions

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