The Gold Price in Times of Crisis

Type of content
Journal Article
Thesis discipline
Degree name
Publisher
University of Canterbury. Department of Economics and Finance
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Language
Date
2014
Authors
Bialkowski, J.
Bohl, M.T.
Stephan, P.M.
Wisniewski, T.
Abstract

Motivated by the recent gold price boom, this paper examines whether an asset bubble exists in the gold market. We approximate gold's fundamental value using several econometric models and apply a Markov regime-switching Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test which has substantial power for detecting explosive behavior. Although our results are sensitive to the speci cation of the fundamental value, we show that a model accounting for the current European sovereign debt crisis accurately tracks the gold price observed in the market. We also note that in ation in a general commodity price index and gold ETF demand have a potential to explain the price trajectory.

Description
Citation
Bialkowski, J., Bohl, M.T., Stephan, P.M., Wisniewski, T. (2014) The Gold Price in Times of Crisis. International Review of Financial Analysis, (early access online).
Keywords
gold price, speculative bubble, Markov Regime-Switching, ADF test, World Financial Crisis,, European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Ngā upoko tukutuku/Māori subject headings
ANZSRC fields of research
Field of Research::14 - Economics::1403 - Econometrics
Rights